Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.283232 3.078605 4.189250 5.904131 8.582259e+00 12.784354 20.276963
2025-04-20 1.485322 2.287776 3.626700 6.191647 1.144174e+01 22.994667 55.457808
2025-04-27 1.091635 1.880330 3.417941 7.029638 1.683144e+01 49.073221 224.696677
2025-05-04 0.838432 1.591337 3.279972 8.113121 2.587430e+01 122.831518 1783.097258
2025-05-11 0.635050 1.302176 2.981449 8.702394 3.699332e+01 318.871744 54012.801767
2025-05-18 0.467099 1.012204 2.505679 8.330931 4.546899e+01 744.963478 NaN
2025-05-25 0.344755 0.778236 2.044302 7.538469 5.107315e+01 1667.745951 NaN
2025-06-01 0.282151 0.670389 1.900983 8.060674 7.522435e+01 9920.423360 NaN
2025-06-08 0.233673 0.580453 1.762413 8.521092 1.113261e+02 181484.630173 NaN
2025-06-15 0.199537 0.517831 1.684807 9.364219 1.831527e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.171263 0.461633 1.597137 10.109315 3.038704e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.142800 0.394005 1.416758 9.760690 4.018083e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.116674 0.327266 1.209669 8.868351 4.693693e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.101827 0.294253 1.144064 9.434226 8.515708e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.092083 0.275800 1.141088 10.947333 2.279692e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.084101 0.260885 1.148812 12.933367 8.636263e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.075327 0.239656 1.104861 14.071871 3.252656e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.065519 0.210971 0.994336 13.463970 6.983515e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.056433 0.182647 0.869002 12.083402 9.448593e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.051486 0.170118 0.841196 13.068253 1.145061e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.047028 0.158258 0.810063 13.948377 3.959350e+08 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.043607 0.149840 0.798252 15.550088 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.040379 0.141275 0.779477 16.990059 NaN NaN NaN